- 2026年スペイン総選挙でセビリアでPPが最多議席を獲得しますか？50¢50%
- 2026年スペイン総選挙でPSOEはセビリアで最多議席を獲得しますか？47¢47%
- 2026年のスペイン総選挙でセビリアにおいて「フロント・アムプラ（FA）」が最多議席を獲得しますか？3¢3%
- 2026年スペイン総選挙でセビリアで最多議席を獲得するのはVoxですか？1¢1%
- ポデモスは2026年のスペイン総選挙でセビリアで最多議席を獲得しますか？<1¢<1%
PP's edge in Seville stems from its dominant performance in Andalusia's May 2026 regional election and consistent national polling leads ahead of the November 29 snap general election. Recent Centra surveys show the party holding steady regionally while PSOE support erodes further, with Vox gaining modestly after its governing pact with PP. Seville's 12 seats remain competitive due to the province's mixed urban-rural electorate and national polarization, where PP projects a narrow plurality over PSOE in local forecasts. Traders price PP highest at 54% as the implied favorite, reflecting these structural advantages, though tight national dynamics and potential late shifts in turnout or alliances could narrow or reverse the gap before election day.
ルール
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Seville as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Seville, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Seville, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).