- EH Bilduは2026年のスペイン総選挙でギプスコア県で最多議席を獲得しますか？77¢77%
- PSOEは2026年スペイン総選挙でギプスコア県で最多議席を獲得しますか？19¢19%
- 2026年のスペイン総選挙で、ギプスコア県で最多議席を獲得するのはPNVですか？<1¢<1%
- PPは2026年スペイン総選挙でギプスコアで最多議席を獲得しますか？<1¢<1%
- 2026年スペイン総選挙でギプスコア県の最多数議席を獲得するのは広範戦線（FA）になりますか？<1¢<1%
- 2026年のスペイン総選挙で、ギプスコア県で最も多くの議席を獲得するのはVoxですか？<1¢<1%
- ポデモスは2026年のスペイン総選挙でギプスコアで最も多くの議席を獲得しますか？<1¢<1%
Trader sentiment strongly favors EH Bildu at 94.5 percent implied probability for the Gipuzkoa seat, driven by the party's entrenched position in Basque nationalist strongholds and consistent outperformance in provincial voting patterns. National parties including PSOE at 5.5 percent and PP at 0.5 percent lag due to weaker local resonance compared with regional priorities. EH Bildu's organizational reach and voter consolidation around Basque-specific platforms sustain the lead, while minor contenders such as Vox and PNV register limited traction. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include sudden shifts in turnout, new coalition signals from other Basque groups, or late developments affecting nationalist voter preferences before resolution.
ルール
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Gipuzkoa as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Gipuzkoa, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Gipuzkoa, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).