- 質問：ロシア選挙 統一ロシアが全地域で勝利？57¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Russia party list receives the greatest number of valid votes of any party list in each individual region in the 2026 Russian legislative elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a region means any federal subject of the Russian Federation for which results of the federal party-list vote are separately reported by the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve solely according to the valid votes received by each party list in each region. The number of seats won by any party, including any seats won in single-member constituencies, will have no bearing on resolution. If the United Russia party list is tied with multiple party lists for the greatest number of valid votes in a region, United Russia will be considered to have received the greatest number of valid votes in that region for the purposes of this market. If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
United Russia holds a commanding position ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma and regional legislative elections through extensive administrative resources, including top ballot placement in 21 of 39 regions holding parliamentary votes and full nomination across all single-member constituencies. The party secured registration everywhere, while several opposition lists faced disqualifications or removals, and independent candidates remain at historic lows. President Putin’s direct endorsement at party congresses and framing of the vote as a key test of the system reinforce centralized coordination. Polling shows United Russia support in the low-to-mid 30s amid war-related pressures, yet its structural advantages in candidate selection, electoral commissions, and voting procedures have historically delivered majorities in nearly all regions. Traders price the 57.5% probability for winning every region on this track record of institutional control rather than raw popularity.