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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must officially assume office. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister assumes office by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent polling ahead of Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election shows the centre-left Red-Green bloc, anchored by Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, maintaining a roughly 10-point lead over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s Tidö coalition. This positioning, consistent across multiple surveys, underpins the market’s strong consensus around Andersson as the likeliest next prime minister once the Riksdag elects a government. The Social Democrats’ status as the largest party and the bloc’s projected path to a majority of seats have reinforced trader expectations of a government shift. Late-campaign developments, including voter turnout shifts or coalition arithmetic after results are finalized, remain the main variables that could still alter the outcome before formation concludes.