- リンクはすべての有効な第2投票のうち8％未満を獲得しますか？100¢100%
- リンケが有効な第2投票の全体のうち11％から14％の間の得票率を獲得しますか？0¢0%
- Linkeは有効な第2投票のうち8％から11％の間を獲得しますか？0¢0%
- Linkeは有効な比例代表得票数の少なくとも14%を獲得しますか？0¢0%
The election result of 6.5 percent for Die Linke on September 20, 2026, underpins the near-certain market pricing for a vote share below 8 percent. Pre-election polling had shown the party hovering near or slightly above the threshold amid steady erosion of its base since 2021, when it recorded 9.9 percent, with support fragmenting toward the AfD surge and the new BSW grouping while the SPD-led campaign emphasized a head-to-head contest that squeezed smaller parties. High turnout and voter migration patterns further compressed Die Linke’s share below earlier forecasts. Only an unusually large revision in the final certified tally or a material change in how official statistics allocate votes could realistically alter the outcome.
ルール
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Linke in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).