- 2026年に日本の国会は解散する？9¢9%
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition secured a fresh mandate in the February 2026 Lower House election following the January dissolution, leaving the current four-year term with more than three years remaining as of mid-October. With a working majority intact and no no-confidence motion pending, the ruling bloc faces little institutional pressure to seek another early vote before year-end. Recent cabinet turbulence, including the agriculture minister’s resignation, has trimmed approval ratings to the low-to-mid 50s but not triggered the kind of acute crisis that historically prompts dissolution. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against a 2026 dissolution, viewing it as inconsistent with standard Japanese parliamentary practice unless unforeseen events such as coalition fracture or a sharp economic downturn materialize in the final weeks of the year.
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日本の現職衆議院が2026年12月31日 23:59 ETまでに解散された場合、この市場は「はい」と判定されます。それ以外の場合、この市場は「いいえ」で決着します。 この市場の主な判定情報源は日本政府の公式情報ですが、信頼できる報道の総意も使用されます。
機械翻訳です。解釈に相違がある場合は原文が優先されます。