- Apakah AS akan menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?17¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
The U.S.-Iran conflict, which began with coordinated airstrikes in February 2026 and escalated around control of the Strait of Hormuz, has featured intermittent U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iranian responses, and a June memorandum of understanding that expired in mid-August without a permanent nuclear or maritime accord. Traders price a full U.S. ground invasion before the end of 2026 at roughly 16.5 percent, reflecting the administration's emphasis on sustained airstrikes, naval blockade, secondary sanctions, and economic pressure—including recent Treasury measures targeting Iran's oil trade—rather than large-scale troop commitments. Military analysts highlight the substantial logistical, force-protection, and political costs of any mainland operation against Iran's terrain and forces. Ongoing mediation through Oman and Pakistan, combined with pauses in strikes and Iranian diplomatic engagement, reinforces the current market view that escalation will likely remain below the threshold of invasion through December 2026.