- US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?>99¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s scheduled Monday press conference to detail new sanctions on Iran, framed as the toughest in history and an “economic D-Day” targeting trade partners including China, drives the near-certain trader consensus reflected in the 97% Yes price. Recent administration statements emphasize secondary sanctions and broader economic isolation to pressure Tehran’s oil and financial networks, building on prior designations and aligning with ongoing diplomatic tensions. This explicit timeline and public commitment create strong expectations of action within the resolution window. Realistic factors that could still shift the outcome include any last-minute postponement of the announcement, recharacterization of measures as enforcement rather than new sanctions, or rapid diplomatic developments altering the planned rollout.