- Apakah Trump akan mengganti nama Selat Hormuz menjadi "Strait of Trump" paling lambat 31 Desember?2¢2%
The overwhelming trader consensus against Trump renaming the Strait of Hormuz by December 31 stems from the absence of any announced executive priorities or policy directives on geographic nomenclature changes, alongside structural limits on unilateral presidential authority over internationally recognized waterways. Diplomatic recognition from affected states including Iran, Oman, and the UAE would be required for any such alteration to gain traction, while the administration's documented focus remains on trade policy, border security, and energy sanctions rather than symbolic rebranding. Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely pursue similar actions without broad congressional or multilateral support. Even a late executive order or memorandum could face immediate legal and practical barriers to implementation before year-end, though an unanticipated diplomatic development or public statement within the resolution window remains the primary theoretical pathway for shifting probabilities.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan menjadi "Ya" jika Donald Trump atau pemerintahan Trump mengumumkan secara terbuka bahwa Amerika Serikat akan secara resmi menyebut Selat Hormuz sebagai "Selat Trump", "Trump Strait", atau nama setara apa pun yang mencakup "Trump" paling lambat 31 Desember 2026, 23.59 ET. Jika tidak, pasar ini akan diselesaikan dengan hasil "Tidak". Sumber utama penyelesaian pasar ini adalah informasi resmi dari Donald Trump atau pemerintahan Trump; namun, konsensus dari pemberitaan tepercaya juga dapat digunakan.
Terjemahan mesin. Jika ada perselisihan, teks asli yang berlaku.