- Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?16¢
- Will Moderate Party (M) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?41¢
- Will Moderate Party (M) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?32¢
- Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?11¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Moderate Party (M) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent late-campaign polls show Moderaterna holding steady near 17%, with the latest Novus and Demoskop surveys placing the party at 17.2% and 16.6% respectively amid a rapidly tightening national race. The right-wing Tidö bloc, anchored by Moderaterna and supported by the Sweden Democrats, has narrowed its deficit to the centre-left opposition to roughly 2–3 points in the final week, driven by a statistically significant drop in Social Democrats support and modest gains for smaller coalition partners. Key issues including security, immigration, crime, and cost of living continue to shape voter movement, while uncertainty around the Liberals clearing the 4% threshold adds volatility to bloc seat projections. These dynamics sustain trader expectations that Moderaterna will finish in the 16–18% range, with limited scope for a decisive breakout absent major last-minute shifts.