- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 36 and 39 inclusive?97¢
- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be 44 or more?<1¢
- Will the number of Republican House members who retire in 2026 be between 40 and 43 inclusive?<1¢
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
As of early September 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the total firmly in the 36–39 range that commands overwhelming trader consensus. This elevated figure stems from a combination of voluntary retirements citing age, family considerations, and institutional frustration, alongside numerous members pursuing governorships, Senate seats, or other state offices. The pattern aligns with historical midterm dynamics for the president’s party, exceeding the 34 House Republicans who departed ahead of the 2018 cycle. With primary season largely concluded and filing deadlines passed in most states, additional shifts would require unexpected losses, late retirements, or special circumstances to move the count outside this band before November.