- Will Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai win the Falealili 1 by-election?100¢100%
- Will Taveuveu Willie Tuatagaloa Fetu win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Tuiloma Tusa Siiliili Laniselota Lameko win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Patea Taveuveu Taamaletoa Aipovi Patea win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Si'a Fa'aletonu Alec Latu win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Person G win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Person H win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Person I win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Person J win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
- Will Person K win the Falealili 1 by-election?0¢0%
The September 18 by-election in Samoa’s Falealili 1 constituency followed the Court of Appeal’s June upholding of the Supreme Court ruling that voided former FAST MP and deputy prime minister Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo’s seat over bribery findings. Preliminary counts released after polling showed FAST candidate Seumafaleupolu Aperila Vaa Tiai ahead with 28.57 percent, well clear of the next-placed independents and HRPP contender. A crowded field of more than a dozen nominees from FAST, HRPP, and independents produced fragmented support, leaving the leader with a decisive edge in the first-past-the-post contest. Traders have priced the frontrunner near 100 percent on the basis of these results and the scheduled return of the writ on September 21. Late shifts in official tallies, formal challenges, or special-vote adjustments remain the primary residual risks to resolution.
Aturan
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Falealili 1 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. The seat became vacant after the election of MP Toelupe Poumulinuku Onesemo was voided by the Court of Appeal on June 29, 2026, following his conviction for election bribery. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Falealili 1 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).