- Apakah Aisha Wahab akan memenangkan kursi DPR untuk CA-14?86¢
- Apakah Melissa Hernandez akan memenangkan kursi DPR untuk CA-14?8¢
Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability as the November 3 general election winner in California's 14th Congressional District, driven by her August 2026 special election victory over Melissa Hernandez by a 53-47% margin and her current incumbency. The district's solidly Democratic lean and Wahab's prior state senate experience further support trader consensus around her position. Hernandez sits at 8.5%, reflecting damage from an October 7 debate in which she accused Wahab of Taliban communications—a remark widely described as inflammatory that prompted the loss of at least one endorsement and drew criticism from local Democratic officials. Minor candidates and "other" options remain at lower implied probabilities amid the two-candidate focus. Mail-in voting has begun, with in-person voting starting later this month under updated district boundaries from Proposition 50.
Aturan
Pasar ini akan diselesaikan berdasarkan individu yang memenangkan kursi distrik kongres CA-14 di Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat AS dalam pemilu paruh waktu 2026. Pemilu paruh waktu akan berlangsung pada 3 November 2026. Pasar ini akan diselesaikan berdasarkan hasil pemilihan sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh konsensus pemberitaan yang kredibel. Jika terdapat ketidakjelasan, pasar ini akan diselesaikan hanya berdasarkan hasil resmi yang dilaporkan oleh pemerintah Amerika Serikat, khususnya Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Terjemahan mesin. Jika ada perselisihan, teks asli yang berlaku.