- Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?19¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent revelations of alleged communications between Justice Alexandre de Moraes and banker Daniel Vorcaro (Banco Master) have sparked fresh opposition calls for resignation or Senate impeachment, yet structural and political barriers keep removal unlikely. As of early September 2026, unsealed federal police documents prompted media editorials and requests from bolsonarista lawmakers (pushing total petitions against Moraes past 60), but Senate President Davi Alcolumbre has signaled he will not advance them pending an STF plenary decision on whether to open a formal investigation. Legal experts note that even an inquiry or indictment would not trigger automatic removal; loss of office requires resignation, a completed Senate impeachment process, or a final conviction specifying that penalty. Lula administration figures have stayed silent, while the STF itself controls internal procedures for investigating its members. Traders price the “No” outcome at 81.5% because repeated past impeachment filings have stalled at the Senate leadership level, the ruling coalition retains institutional leverage, and no near-term procedural trigger exists for forced departure. Scheduled STF deliberations and the post-October electoral calendar could generate further pressure, but these remain secondary to the high bar for actual removal.