- Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?1¢1%
Trader consensus on the low likelihood of Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, stems from the lack of any official statements, health disclosures, or institutional pressures indicating otherwise during his term. Historical precedent shows presidential resignations as rare, typically requiring extraordinary circumstances like those surrounding Richard Nixon. Current administration priorities, including immigration and economic policy implementation, align with expectations of continuity through the midterm cycle and beyond. No congressional actions or party dynamics have created credible pathways for departure. Realistic factors that could still shift outcomes remain limited to unforeseen events such as acute medical issues or substantial legal developments that might prompt reevaluation of the timeline.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.