- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?5¢5%
Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale troop mobilizations, amphibious exercises, or direct cross-strait threats in recent months. Ongoing diplomatic channels, US security assistance to Taiwan, and Beijing's focus on economic priorities have sustained deterrence without triggering escalation. This consensus aligns with historical patterns where full-scale military action has required sustained preparation absent in current signals. Scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden leadership decisions in Beijing, a major incident in the Taiwan Strait, or changes in US alliance commitments before the resolution date.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.