- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?2¢2%
Traders assign a 98.5% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the narrow remaining window and absence of visible large-scale amphibious preparations. Recent developments show continued gray-zone pressure through air incursions, naval patrols, and carrier deployments in the western Pacific, yet these remain consistent with coercion rather than imminent offensive operations. US assessments highlight PLA readiness delays from ongoing anti-corruption purges, while cross-strait risks stay manageable amid US-China diplomatic contacts ahead of APEC meetings. Analysts note Beijing appears focused on longer-term capability milestones around 2027–2028 and Taiwan’s next election cycle. A sudden shift could still occur through miscalculation during intensified exercises or abrupt policy changes, though such scenarios lack supporting indicators in the current environment.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.