- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?43¢43%
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?42¢42%
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?10¢10%
- 8%43,4%Senate24,5 E $ forgalom
- 1%42%President60,6 E $ forgalom
- 2%9,7%Neither15,9 E $ forgalom
Recent midterm election results have energized progressive networks and prompted Democratic Socialists of America chapters to pass resolutions urging a 2028 presidential bid, while AOC’s post-election memo explicitly kept open the options of a White House run, a Senate primary challenge against Chuck Schumer, or remaining in the House. Her earlier statements that any decision would follow the midterms and that a presidential contest would be “all or nothing” have kept both Senate and presidential probabilities closely aligned near 42 percent each. Traders appear to weigh the lower-risk Senate path against the national profile and activist momentum favoring a presidential campaign, with any early 2027 endorsement process or Schumer retirement signals likely to shift the balance.
Szabályok
This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement. If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.