- Will Pete Buttigieg be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?25¢25%
- Will Andy Beshear be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?23¢23%
- Will Ro Khanna be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?16¢16%
- Will Rahm Emanuel be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?13¢13%
- Will Gavin Newsom be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?13¢13%
- Will Josh Shapiro be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?8¢8%
- Will Kamala Harris be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?6¢6%
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?4¢4%
- Will Jon Ossoff be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?2¢2%
- Will Stephen A. Smith be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?<1¢<1%
- Will Jon Stewart be the first listed Democrat to announce a run for President in 2028?<1¢<1%
- 4%24,5%Pete Buttigieg2,9 E $ forgalom
- 1%23%Andy Beshear2,6 E $ forgalom
- 2%16%Ro Khanna1 E $ forgalom
- 2%13%Rahm Emanuel1,3 E $ forgalom
- 2%12,9%Gavin Newsom4,7 E $ forgalom
- 1%8,1%Josh Shapiro720,9 $ forgalom
- 3%5,6%Kamala Harris1,2 E $ forgalom
- 3,9%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez715 $ forgalom
- 1,9%Jon Ossoff538,3 $ forgalom
- 0,4%Stephen A. Smith510,9 $ forgalom
- 0,3%Jon Stewart568,6 $ forgalom
With no Democratic candidate having formally announced a 2028 presidential bid in the days after the November 2026 midterms, "Other" leads at 50% as traders price in the possibility of an unlisted contender or delayed timing. Pete Buttigieg and Andy Beshear rank highest among listed names due to their post-election positioning, including Buttigieg's prior comments expressing inclination to run and Beshear's role chairing the Democratic Governors Association amid strong midterm results for the party. Recent travel by multiple figures to early nominating states, PAC fundraising, and statements deferring decisions until after the midterms have shaped the current implied probabilities without yet producing a first mover.
Szabályok
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.