- Will Vox win fewer than 56 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?26¢26%
- Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?11¢11%
- Will Vox win 61-65 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?21¢21%
- Will Vox win 66-70 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?21¢21%
- Will Vox win 71-75 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?16¢16%
- Will Vox win 76 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?6¢6%
- 16%26,3%<563,7 E $ forgalom
- 1%11%56-602,9 E $ forgalom
- 1%21%61-652 E $ forgalom
- 7%21%66-702 E $ forgalom
- 4%15,9%71-751,8 E $ forgalom
- 14%5,5%76+1,6 E $ forgalom
Recent polls ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap general election project Vox at roughly 18–19% of the vote, translating to seat estimates clustered between the mid-50s and low-70s depending on the pollster and turnout assumptions. The party’s gains appear driven by voter shifts from the PP amid ongoing debates over immigration policy, regional fiscal arrangements, and government handling of recent transport incidents. Seat outcomes remain sensitive to the final week of campaigning, the distribution of undecided voters in key provinces, and the precise performance of smaller parties that affect proportionality. This produces the observed market dispersion, with the highest probabilities assigned to brackets below 56 and between 61–70 seats. Late polling swings, regional turnout differences, or shifts in PP–Vox vote splitting could still move the final tally several seats in either direction.
Szabályok
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Vox in the Congress of Deputies of Spain as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).