- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?6¢6%
Recent diplomatic efforts center on a late-October 2026 draft framework proposing that Iran transfer its highly enriched uranium stockpile to a third country or down-blend it under IAEA supervision, in exchange for sanctions relief and reopening the Strait of Hormuz within days of an initial understanding, with China potentially serving as guarantor. Direct talks have shifted toward Doha with Qatari mediation. However, Iranian officials publicly rejected any transfer on November 2, stating that surrender is not under consideration. Negotiations remain active within a 60-day MOU window established earlier in 2026, with phased verification required before concessions. Trader consensus on timelines for any agreement reflects uncertainty over Iran's willingness to accept stockpile disposition terms amid ongoing reconstruction at nuclear sites and internal debates on enrichment policy.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.