- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?4¢4%
Iran's insistence on retaining its stockpile of highly enriched uranium inside the country and conditioning any nuclear concessions on prior U.S. sanctions relief has kept a comprehensive agreement out of reach. Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that not a single gram of enriched material will leave, while U.S. demands center on verifiable reductions in enrichment capacity and IAEA access to damaged sites. Recent mediation drafts propose options such as third-country transfers or on-site downblending tied to sanctions easing and Strait of Hormuz reopening, yet talks remain conditional and stalled as of early November 2026. With the December 31 deadline approaching and no finalized deal, traders assess the probability of Iran agreeing to end enrichment by then as very low.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.