- 244 or fewer votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?11¢11%
- 245-249 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?6¢6%
- 250-254 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?24¢24%
- 255-259 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?33¢33%
- 260-264 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?17¢17%
- 265-269 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?1¢1%
- 270-274 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?5¢5%
- 275-279 votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?4¢4%
- 280 or more votes for Hakeem Jeffries to be Speaker on first ballot?<1¢<1%
- 50%11%244 or fewer2 E $ forgalom
- 17%5,5%245-249679,8 $ forgalom
- 2%24%250-2541,5 E $ forgalom
- 13%32,5%255-2591,5 E $ forgalom
- 2%16,5%260-2641,6 E $ forgalom
- 24%1,1%265-269308,4 $ forgalom
- 4%5%270-2742,5 E $ forgalom
- 22%3,6%275-279455,1 $ forgalom
- 32%0,5%280 or more285 $ forgalom
Democrats' projected majority of roughly 255 seats or more after the November 2026 midterms forms the primary driver of trader pricing for Hakeem Jeffries's first-ballot Speaker tally on January 3, 2027. With no declared Democratic challenger and near-unanimous caucus backing expected once the incoming members formally nominate him later this month, the leading ranges of 255-259 and 250-254 reflect anticipated full party-line support plus minimal cross-aisle votes. Minor uncertainty stems from a handful of progressive holdouts and one external petition, yet these factors have not shifted the consensus that Jeffries will secure the gavel on the opening roll call absent last-minute absences or defections. The skin-in-the-game pricing aligns closely with historical patterns for unified majorities electing their leader without prolonged balloting.
Szabályok
The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress. This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House. A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. Only votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries by name on the first such ballot will count, regardless of whether he is elected on that ballot. If Hakeem Jeffries receives no votes on the first ballot, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If a person other than Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.