- Will Trump issue 0-4 vetoes by December 31, 2027?9¢9%
- Will Trump issue 5-9 vetoes by December 31, 2027?15¢15%
- Will Trump issue 10-14 vetoes by December 31, 2027?18¢18%
- Will Trump issue 15-19 vetoes by December 31, 2027?14¢14%
- Will Trump issue 20-24 vetoes by December 31, 2027?13¢13%
- Will Trump issue 25-29 vetoes by December 31, 2027?9¢9%
- Will Trump issue 30+ vetoes by December 31, 2027?16¢16%
- 1%9%0-4234 $ forgalom
- 1%15%5-9329 $ forgalom
- 6%18%10-14587,6 $ forgalom
- 2%14%15-193,5 E $ forgalom
- 1%13%20-24331,8 $ forgalom
- 4%8,5%25-291,5 E $ forgalom
- 10%15,5%30+2 E $ forgalom
The spread of probabilities across multiple outcome ranges reflects uncertainty over congressional majorities after the 2026 midterms and the volume of legislation reaching the president's desk. Unified party control tends to reduce vetoes as priorities align on appropriations, immigration enforcement, tax measures, and regulatory reforms, while divided government or narrow margins increase the likelihood of bills facing executive rejection. Historical patterns show presidents issue fewer vetoes when their party holds both chambers, though external events such as spending deadlines or policy disputes can still prompt action. Scheduled votes on continuing resolutions, debt limit adjustments, and major authorizations through 2027 remain key variables that could shift the distribution if they produce more or fewer override attempts.
Szabályok
This market will resolve according to the exact number of bills and joint resolutions Donald Trump vetoes between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after December 31, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify. Each vetoed bill or joint resolution counts as one veto, whether or not Congress later overrides it. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.