- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 20261¢1%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?3¢3%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?5¢5%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027?21¢21%
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2027?37¢37%
- 1,2%November 30, 202648,4 E $ forgalom
- 1%2,7%December 31, 20262,4 M $ forgalom
- 5,5%March 31, 202754 E $ forgalom
- 1%20,5%June 30, 202711,8 E $ forgalom
- 2%37%December 31, 202715,6 E $ forgalom
Friedrich Merz remains Chancellor of a CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition formed after the 2025 federal election, but trader sentiment reflects persistent pressure from the 2026 government crisis. Severe CDU losses in September state elections in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin fueled widespread discussion of a possible Kanzlertausch or coalition collapse amid record-low approval ratings and AfD gains. Coalition tensions have since eased somewhat, with Merz publicly committing to stay in office, advancing tax and pension reforms, and managing foreign policy priorities such as Ukraine support. Key upcoming factors include January 2027 deliberations on the next federal president, ongoing Bundestag votes on economic measures, and any shifts in national polling or state-level dynamics that could trigger early elections or internal party challenges.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.