- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?30¢30%
- Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?22¢22%
- Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?17¢17%
- Will David Lisnard win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?15¢15%
- Will Marine Le Pen win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?5¢5%
- Will Christine Lagarde win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?4¢4%
- Will Gabriel Attal win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?3¢3%
- Will François Hollande win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?2¢2%
- Will Dominique de Villepin win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?1¢1%
- Will François Ruffin win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1%
- Will Bruno Retailleau win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1%
- Will Sarah Knafo win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?<1¢<1%
29,5%Jean-Luc Mélenchon10,1 E $ forgalom
6%21,5%Édouard Philippe8,7 E $ forgalom
1%17%Raphaël Glucksmann5,4 E $ forgalom
15,2%David Lisnard4,8 E $ forgalom
4,7%Marine Le Pen3 E $ forgalom
4,5%Christine Lagarde2,2 E $ forgalom
3,3%Gabriel Attal2,9 E $ forgalom
1,6%François Hollande972 $ forgalom
1,2%Dominique de Villepin1,1 E $ forgalom
0,5%François Ruffin913,2 $ forgalom
0,2%Bruno Retailleau1 E $ forgalom
0,2%Sarah Knafo1,1 E $ forgalom
Recent polls show Marine Le Pen leading first-round intentions at 34-36 percent while Jean-Luc Mélenchon holds second at 17-19 percent, leaving third place fragmented among Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, David Lisnard, and smaller center-right or centrist figures. Philippe and Glucksmann have each slipped one to two points over the past month amid center fragmentation and rising support for Lisnard, who now sits near 9 percent in several surveys. Trader consensus prices reflect this uncertainty, with no candidate exceeding low-30s implied probability for third and the field remaining open to shifts from primary outcomes, candidate withdrawals, or late campaign momentum. Scheduled polling releases and any formal center-right primary decisions in coming months could widen or narrow these gaps before the April 2027 first round.
Szabályok
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).