- Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?<1¢<1%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?4¢4%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by March 31, 2027?10¢10%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by June 30, 2027?20¢20%
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2027?48¢48%
- 1%0,2%November 30, 202613,8 E $ forgalom
- 4%December 31, 202611,6 E $ forgalom
- 2%10%March 31, 20274,5 E $ forgalom
- 19,5%June 30, 20271 E $ forgalom
- 13%47,5%December 31, 2027631 $ forgalom
Flávio Bolsonaro departed Brazil in late October 2026 shortly after losing the presidential runoff to incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, traveling via Argentina and Ecuador before arriving in Miami with his family despite a Supreme Federal Court order to surrender his passports amid ongoing money-laundering and corruption investigations. He has remained in the United States in self-imposed exile, where he has positioned himself as opposition leader and appeared at a Mar-a-Lago event in early November. His Senate term ends early in 2027, removing parliamentary immunity and exposing him to potential prosecution. Traders assess return timelines against possible shifts in Brazilian judicial proceedings, bilateral relations with the Trump administration, or domestic political developments that could alter legal risks or incentives for reentry.
Szabályok
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.