- Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat?94¢94%
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?6¢6%
- 10%93,5%Jay Obernolte (R)96,6 E $ forgalom
- 10%6,3%Tessa Lynn Hodge (D)142,9 E $ forgalom
Jay Obernolte’s incumbency and consistent lead through multiple rounds of vote tabulation in the Republican-leaning California 23rd district have driven trader consensus toward a strong probability of victory. The three-term Republican has held a narrow but uninterrupted edge since election night, currently at 51.3 percent to Democrat Tessa Lynn Hodge’s 48.7 percent with most precincts reported, narrower than his prior margins but still ahead in key counties such as San Bernardino. Remaining mail and provisional ballots plus the December 11 certification deadline represent the main variables that could narrow or reverse the gap, though historical patterns in similar districts favor the sitting member absent major late shifts in turnout or legal disputes over counting procedures.
Szabályok
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).