- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?19¢19 %
The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid prolonged external military pressure, leadership transition following the February 2026 death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and sustained domestic protests since late 2025 underpins the 81.5% implied probability against collapse before 2028. Security forces including the IRGC have maintained cohesion, suppressing unrest through mass arrests and executions while rebuilding repressive capacity after U.S. and Israeli strikes. Recent U.S. midterm outcomes have prompted defiant official statements from new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and hardliners, who view them as validation of their strategy. Ongoing negotiations and scattered demonstrations have not produced elite defections or systemic fracture. Trader consensus aligns with assessments that the regime can endure these challenges without falling within the resolution window.
Pravila
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.