- Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?88¢88 %
- Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Anthropic be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?2¢2 %
- Will DeepSeek be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?2¢2 %
- Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Moonshot be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Z.ai be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Amazon be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Nvidia be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Baidu be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
2 %88 %MetaPromet 14,3 tis. $
3,8 %AlibabaPromet 7,2 tis. $
3,4 %XiaomiPromet 1,1 tis. $
1 %2,9 %AnthropicPromet 1,2 tis. $
1 %2,3 %GooglePromet 10,9 tis. $
2 %DeepSeekPromet 1,2 tis. $
1 %1,9 %OpenAIPromet 911,3 $
3 %1,5 %MoonshotPromet 849,9 $
1 %1,5 %Z.aiPromet 1,3 tis. $
0,8 %AmazonPromet 934,1 $
0,7 %NvidiaPromet 1 tis. $
0,5 %BaiduPromet 1 tis. $
Meta's commanding 86% implied probability for third-best AI lab by end of November stems from its consistent delivery of high-performing open-source large language models that have closed gaps with closed-source leaders on key benchmarks. Recent scaling of Llama variants, expanded developer ecosystem adoption, and strategic infrastructure investments have reinforced this positioning amid a competitive landscape where OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic maintain top-tier status through proprietary advances. Traders appear to view Meta's transparent release cadence and hardware partnerships as durable advantages unlikely to shift dramatically in the remaining weeks, while lower odds for labs like Alibaba, Anthropic, and DeepSeek reflect more limited recent capability demonstrations or regulatory hurdles. Upcoming earnings calls and any late-November model updates could still introduce volatility, though current sentiment shows strong consensus around Meta's standing.
Pravila
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".