- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?46¢46 %
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?38¢38 %
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?14¢14 %
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?4¢4 %
- Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?3¢3 %
- 7 %45,5 %50%+Promet 1 tis. $
- 26 %37,5 %55%+Promet 56,7 tis. $
- 7 %14 %60%+Promet 22 tis. $
- 3,8 %65%+Promet 11,7 tis. $
- 1 %3,3 %70%+Promet 3,2 tis. $
Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 and related variants have reached approximately 62% on recent HLE leaderboards, positioning the company competitively yet behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.1 models that top out near 65%. This gap reflects differences in scaling, reasoning techniques, and post-training optimizations on the 2,500-question expert benchmark designed to test advanced knowledge and multi-subject reasoning without easy saturation. Tool-augmented evaluations have lifted overall frontier scores substantially in 2026, with HLE-Diamond subsets showing further upside potential. Any new Meta model releases, capability demonstrations, or internal scaling announcements before December 31 could shift the highest Meta score, as the market aggregates trader views on whether these dynamics close the current deficit.
Pravila
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".