- स्वीडन संसद चुनाव: अधिक वोट एसडी या एम को?80¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “SD” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins more valid votes than Moderate Party (M) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “M” if Moderate Party (M) wins more valid votes than Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both Sweden Democrats (SD) and Moderate Party (M) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party. Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent Novus polling shows Sweden Democrats support at 20.7 percent compared with 17.2 percent for the Moderates, extending a consistent lead observed across multiple surveys since spring. SD has gained modestly in the final campaign phase while M has edged lower, aligning with voter priorities on immigration, crime and security that have sustained the Sweden Democrats' position as the stronger right-leaning party. The election on 13 September occurs amid a tightening bloc contest, yet individual party trends continue to favor SD finishing ahead of M. Trader consensus at 80 percent for SD reflects these sustained polling differentials and the absence of late developments that would reverse the gap.