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The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
The 2028 presidential race remains highly fragmented in trader consensus, with no outcome exceeding 25% as the pre-primary phase leaves ample room for shifts in voter coalitions, polling averages, and Electoral College math. JD Vance's 23.3% lead stems from his visibility as vice president under the incumbent Republican administration, while Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 14.1% anchors Democratic positioning amid a broad field that includes Marco Rubio, Jon Ossoff, and others. The upcoming 2026 midterms represent a key near-term catalyst that could alter legislative momentum and highlight economic or policy headwinds for the president's party. Historical patterns of midterm losses for the incumbent side, combined with the absence of formal announcements or major primary contests, sustain this wide distribution of probabilities across dozens of names.