- Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of September 2026?26¢
- Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of September 2026?3¢
- Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.25T and $1.50T at the end of September 2026?14¢
- Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.50T and $1.75T at the end of September 2026?40¢
- Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of September 2026?36¢
- Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of September 2026?30¢
- Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be at least $2.25T at the end of September 2026?26¢
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month. If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
SpaceX's post-IPO share price trajectory since its June 2026 debut at $135 underpins the closely matched Polymarket odds around the $1.5–2.0 trillion bands. The stock surged above $2 trillion initially on Starlink and launch momentum before shedding roughly $1 trillion amid profit-taking, multiple lock-up expirations, and Q2 results showing 92% revenue growth tempered by elevated AI infrastructure spending and ongoing losses. Current trading levels near $1.78–1.9 trillion reflect these dynamics, with traders weighing near-term catalysts such as additional Starship flight tests, Pentagon contract flows, and broader equity sentiment against execution risks in scaling unprofitable segments. The tight distribution across the top three outcomes captures uncertainty over whether the equity can stabilize or rebound into the higher ranges by end-September.