- 2026 में फेड दर वृद्धि?56¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Elevated inflation readings near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year, driven by energy-price shocks from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader expectations toward at least one 25-basis-point Fed funds rate increase in 2026 from the current 3.50–3.75% target range. The July FOMC decision to hold rates steady passed 9–3, with three dissents favoring an immediate hike, while recent labor-market data show resilience alongside softer payrolls and retail sales. Market-implied odds near 56.5% for a hike reflect this hawkish tilt in trader consensus, tempered by uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 meeting, upcoming CPI releases, and the Jackson Hole symposium.