- क्या फेड अक्टूबर 2026 की बैठक के बाद ब्याज दरों में 25 बीपीएस की वृद्धि करेगा?25¢
- क्या फेड अक्टूबर 2026 की बैठक के बाद ब्याज दरों में 50+ बीपीएस की कटौती करेगा?1¢
- क्या अक्टूबर 2026 की बैठक के बाद फेड ब्याज दरों में कोई बदलाव नहीं होगा?72¢
- क्या फेड अक्टूबर 2026 की बैठक के बाद ब्याज दरों में 25 बेसिस पॉइंट की कमी करेगा?4¢
- क्या फेड अक्टूबर 2026 की बैठक के बाद 50+ बेसिस पॉइंट्स से अधिक ब्याज दरें बढ़ाएगा?1¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Persistent inflation around 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 CPI data, alongside a softening labor market evidenced by the July jobs report showing a 23,000 payroll decline and 4.1% unemployment, has anchored trader expectations for no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate holding at 3.50-3.75% following the July decision amid mixed committee views on further tightening, market-implied odds of 71.5% for unchanged policy reflect consensus that incoming data do not yet justify an immediate adjustment. The 24.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike incorporates residual concerns over elevated prices and resilient growth, while lower probabilities for cuts underscore limited downside risks priced in ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and subsequent economic releases. These probabilities aggregate real-capital trader assessments of the policy path.