- क्या 31 दिसंबर तक होर्मुज़ जलडमरूमध्य में यातायात सामान्य हो जाएगा?33¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated blockades, strikes, and enforcement actions continue to suppress traffic through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-February 2026 levels, supporting trader consensus that normal volumes are unlikely to resume by December 31, 2026. Since the conflict began on February 28, 2026, daily transits have averaged far below the pre-war baseline of roughly 130 vessels, with recent August data showing commodity traffic often in the single digits to low teens and overall AIS-detected flows approximately 90% reduced. A mid-June preliminary agreement briefly lifted restrictions and produced a short-lived peak (reaching 40–70+ transits on some days in late June), but renewed Iranian drone and missile strikes on vessels, IRGC turn-back orders and seizures, US retaliatory strikes, and competing route/blockade regimes caused a rapid reversal. Traffic has since remained suppressed amid dark transits, high war-risk premiums (often 40x normal), suspended IMO traffic schemes, and behavioral shifts by operators avoiding high-risk corridors. As of late August 2026, Iranian assertions of control, demands for coordination or fees, and enforcement actions coincide with US sanctions and naval measures, while negotiations with Oman and others have not produced a durable reopening framework. Recent incidents, including August attacks, seizures, and vessel blacklisting, reinforce risk aversion. With only four months remaining until year-end and no clear path to de-escalation or verified normalization in primary maritime reporting, the implied probability on “No” reflects sustained barriers from active military and diplomatic frictions.