La Russie va-t-elle envahir un pays de l'OTAN d'ici... ?
Date de début
2025-05-28
Date de fin
2025-12-31
Volume 24h
$2K
Volume total
$5.5M
- La Russie envahira-t-elle un pays de l'OTAN d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?6¢
- La Russie envahira-t-elle un pays de l'OTAN d'ici le 30 septembre 2026 ?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.