- La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026?4¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sustained Chinese grey-zone operations, including routine PLA aircraft crossings of the median line, naval and coast guard patrols around Taiwan, and live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait through July and August 2026, have not escalated toward invasion preparations. Taiwan's record defense budget proposal exceeding T$1 trillion, ongoing Han Kuang exercises, and drone procurement reflect continued deterrence efforts amid these pressures. With only months remaining until the end of 2026, traders' 96.3% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of verifiable indicators of imminent large-scale amphibious action. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include sudden miscalculation during heightened patrols, abrupt changes in Beijing's strategic priorities, or major diplomatic breakdowns before year-end.