- La valeur médiane des maisons aux États-Unis sera-t-elle inférieure à 419 000 $ au 30 septembre ?68¢
- La valeur médiane des maisons aux États-Unis sera-t-elle comprise entre 433 000 $ et 440 000 $ au 30 septembre ?2¢
- La valeur médiane des maisons aux États-Unis sera-t-elle comprise entre 447 000 $ et 454 000 $ au 30 septembre ?<1¢
- La valeur médiane des maisons aux États-Unis sera-t-elle comprise entre 426 000 $ et 433 000 $ au 30 septembre ?16¢
- La valeur médiane des maisons aux États-Unis sera-t-elle comprise entre 419 000 $ et 426 000 $ le 30 septembre ?7¢
- La valeur médiane d'une maison aux États-Unis sera-t-elle d'au moins 454 000 $ au 30 septembre ?<1¢
- La valeur médiane des maisons aux États-Unis sera-t-elle comprise entre 440 000 $ et 447 000 $ au 30 septembre ?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/49)
Elevated mortgage rates near 6.66% for 30-year fixed loans continue to weigh on buyer demand and transaction volumes, supporting the 68.4% implied probability that the median U.S. home value stays below $419,000 by September 30. Recent data from Realtor.com show national median listing prices at $424,500 in August, down 1.3% year-over-year, while Zillow’s typical home value index hovers around $372,000 with only modest 1% annual gains amid rising inventory and longer days on market. NAR existing-home median sales prices reached $434,100 in July before seasonal softening, yet broader trends of price cuts and regional weakness in the Northeast and Midwest reinforce trader consensus around contained or lower readings. Key near-term catalysts include September housing data releases and any further shifts in Fed policy expectations that could influence financing costs.