- Le PP remportera-t-il le plus de sièges à Jaén lors des élections générales espagnoles de 2026 ?59¢59 %
- Le PSOE remportera-t-il le plus de sièges à Jaén lors des élections générales espagnoles de 2026 ?28¢28 %
- Vox remportera-t-il le plus de sièges à Jaén lors des élections générales espagnoles de 2026 ?10¢10 %
- Le Front large (FA) remportera-t-il le plus de sièges à Jaén lors des élections générales espagnoles de 2026 ?<1¢<1 %
- Podemos remportera-t-il le plus de sièges à Jaén lors des élections générales espagnoles de 2026 ?<1¢<1 %
PP leads trader consensus for the Jaén seat in Spain’s November 29 general election due to its consistent regional strength and national polling advantage. In the May 2026 Andalusian vote, the party secured 43.7% in the province against PSOE’s 27.3% and Vox’s 13.6%, reflecting durable conservative support in this agricultural area. Recent national surveys place PP ahead by several points, while PP leaders in Jaén highlight infrastructure deficits and dissatisfaction with the incumbent government as campaign themes. PSOE adjusted its Jaén ticket for parity ahead of the vote, and PP-Vox coordination talks focus on Senate outcomes. These factors sustain the implied probability gap, though late shifts in turnout or alliances could narrow margins before election night.
Règles
Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Jaén as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Jaén, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Jaén, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).