- Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?63¢
- Jair Bolsonaro gagnera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?<1¢
- Fernando Haddad remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?<1¢
- Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?<1¢
- Eduardo Bolsonaro va-t-il gagner l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026?<1¢
- Est-ce que Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior va gagner l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?<1¢
- Renan Santos remportera-t-il l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026?3¢
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?35¢
- Ronaldo Caiado va-t-il gagner l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?<1¢
- Romeu Zema va-t-il gagner l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?<1¢
- Camilo Santana va-t-il gagner l'élection présidentielle brésilienne de 2026 ?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Lula maintains a lead in recent polling as the incumbent seeking re-election in the October 2026 contest, with first-round support near 39-41% compared to Flávio Bolsonaro's 33-37%. Runoff simulations show the race tightening to near statistical ties or single-digit edges for the president, consistent with every presidential election since 2002 advancing to a second round. Flávio Bolsonaro, nominated by the Liberal Party with his father's endorsement, carries the main right-wing challenge while other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema remain in low single digits. Official campaigning began in mid-August, and the latest Nexus and Datafolha surveys reflect modest narrowing of Lula's advantage amid stable voter rejection levels for both frontrunners. Trader pricing at these levels aligns with the wisdom of crowds assessing Lula's structural position against a fragmented opposition field ahead of the October 4 first round.