- Couvre-feu à Paris d'ici le 19 octobre ?2¢
- Couvre-feu à Paris d'ici le 21 octobre ?5¢
- Couvre-feu à Paris avant le 24 octobre ?7¢
- Couvre-feu à Paris d'ici le 31 octobre ?10¢
Recent protests across France on October 17, including in Paris, drew hundreds of thousands of participants focused on living costs, education funding, and public services, with some groups engaging in clashes, looting, and property damage that prompted over 850 arrests in the capital alone. Authorities responded with targeted restrictions on unpermitted gatherings in sensitive zones like the Champs-Élysées and near government buildings, use of tear gas and water cannons, and prior bans on specific demonstrations tied to security concerns. No general curfew has been imposed, consistent with trader consensus showing low implied probabilities for an announcement by late October. Escalation risks remain if unrest continues, though current measures emphasize selective policing and event management over broader nighttime restrictions.
Règles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of the City of Paris, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements or neighborhoods of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above. Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.