- Donald Trump remportera-t-il le prix Nobel de la paix en 2026 ?2¢
- Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?9¢
- Greta Thunberg remportera-t-elle le prix Nobel de la paix en 2026?1¢
- UNRWA remportera-t-il le prix Nobel de la paix en 2026 ?4¢
- António Guterres remportera-t-il le Prix Nobel de la paix en 2026 ?<1¢
- Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani remportera-t-il le prix Nobel de la paix en 2026 ?2¢
- Khaled Mashal remportera-t-il le prix Nobel de la paix en 2026 ?<1¢
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan remportera-t-il le prix Nobel de la paix en 2026 ?<1¢
- Ahmed al-Sharaa peut-il gagner le prix Nobel de la Paix en 2026 ?1¢
- Mohammed bin Salman gagnera-t-il le prix Nobel de la paix en 2026 ?<1¢
- Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3¢
- Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?1¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
Yulia Navalnaya holds a narrow market lead at 8.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, reflecting trader focus on her profile as a high-profile human rights advocate continuing her late husband Alexei Navalny’s opposition work from exile. The field remains highly fragmented, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 4.7%, UNRWA at 4.3%, and Pope Leo XIV at 3.0%, as the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s secretive process favors narratives of principled resistance against authoritarianism following the 2025 award to Venezuelan opposition figure María Corina Machado. Recent nominations totaling 287 candidates closed in January, while developments like Trump’s reported role in a Gaza ceasefire have kept his odds modest at 2.1% amid historical committee skepticism. This spread underscores the award’s unpredictability, with momentum likely hinging on October’s announcement and any late shifts in global diplomacy or humanitarian stories.