- Réunion diplomatique États-Unis x Iran d'ici le 31 août 2026 ?2¢
- Rencontre diplomatique États-Unis x Iran d’ici le 30 septembre 2026 ?22¢
- Réunion diplomatique États-Unis x Iran d'ici le 31 mars 2027 ?68¢
- Réunion diplomatique États-Unis x Iran d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?51¢
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
US-Iran diplomatic efforts center on follow-up to the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum, which set a 60-day window ending August 17 for resolving nuclear inspections, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz maritime access. That deadline passed without a final agreement, after which US officials stated no talks or meetings are scheduled or underway, citing Iranian actions in the strait and violations of interim terms. Earlier 2026 technical sessions in Switzerland produced reported progress on IAEA access and asset releases, but momentum has stalled amid competing priorities and mediator involvement from Qatar and Pakistan. Traders assess timing for any next round against these unresolved flashpoints and the absence of confirmed new diplomatic dates.