- Le parti « Nouvelles Personnes » (NL) remportera-t-il moins de 35 sièges lors des prochaines élections à la Douma d'État russe ?100¢100 %
- Nouveaux Gens (NL) gagneront-ils entre 35 et 44 sièges aux prochaines élections à la Douma d'État russe ?0¢0 %
- Le parti New People (NL) remportera-t-il entre 45 et 54 sièges lors de la prochaine élection à la Douma d'État russe ?0¢0 %
- Le parti New People (NL) remportera-t-il entre 55 et 64 sièges lors de la prochaine élection à la Douma d'État russe ?0¢0 %
- Les Nouveaux Gens (NL) remporteront-ils entre 65 et 74 sièges lors des prochaines élections à la Douma d'État russe ?0¢0 %
- Le parti New People (NL) remportera-t-il 85 sièges ou plus lors des prochaines élections à la Douma d'État russe ?0¢0 %
- Nouveaux Gens (NL) obtiendront-ils entre 75 et 84 sièges lors de la prochaine élection à la Douma d'État russe ?0¢0 %
New People’s projected seat total in Russia’s September 2026 State Duma election remains firmly below 35, reflecting the party’s roughly 8% share of the party-list vote and zero single-mandate district wins in preliminary Central Election Commission results. The mixed electoral system awards half the 450 seats through single-member constituencies that United Russia has dominated, while New People’s support concentrates among urban and creative-class voters without sufficient breadth for constituency victories. Historical precedent from its 2021 debut and the party’s status within the managed multiparty system further constrain gains. Trader consensus aligns with these outcomes, though modest upward adjustments remain possible if other parties fall below the 5% threshold and trigger seat redistribution.
Règles
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.