- La température maximale à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 28°C ou moins le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 29°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 30°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 31°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 32°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température la plus élevée à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 33°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température la plus élevée à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 34°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température la plus élevée à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 35°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température la plus élevée à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 36°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 37°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température la plus élevée à Djeddah sera-t-elle de 38°C ou plus le 14 octobre ?>99¢
Trader consensus around a 38°C or higher peak in Jeddah on October 14 rests on the region’s mid-October climatology, where coastal desert conditions under the Red Sea trough often produce daytime maxima of 34–37°C, with warm-air advection from the interior and clear skies pushing readings above 38°C in stronger years. Official Saudi meteorological observations and reanalysis data confirm this baseline, with historical October extremes frequently reaching or exceeding that threshold early in the month before seasonal cooling sets in. Current model guidance aligns with minimal cloud cover and light winds that limit mixing, sustaining elevated surface temperatures through the afternoon. Resolution hinges on the official daily maximum from Jeddah stations; an unusually strong sea breeze or unexpected moisture intrusion could cap readings below the threshold, though such shifts remain low-probability given the established pattern.
Règles
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=oejn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.