- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 21°C ou moins le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température la plus élevée à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 22°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 23°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 24°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 25°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 26°C le 14 octobre ?>99¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 27°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 28°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 29°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 30°C le 14 octobre ?<1¢
- La température maximale à Tokyo sera-t-elle de 31°C ou plus le 14 octobre ?<1¢
Real-time observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency confirm a daily maximum of 26°C in Tokyo on October 14, driving the market's near-certain consensus on that outcome. Current conditions feature a mix of clouds, light showers, and moderate winds under a transitioning pressure system, aligning with seasonal late-autumn patterns where highs typically range 22–25°C but have trended warmer this month. Ensemble forecast models showed tight agreement on peak readings near this threshold, with minimal spread in guidance. Final official verification from central Tokyo stations will resolve the market, though revisions beyond the observed high remain unlikely given dense surface data coverage.
Règles
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.