- Le SPD obtiendra-t-il entre 10 % et 13 % de tous les seconds votes valides ?100¢100 %
- Le SPD obtiendra-t-il moins de 10 % de tous les seconds votes valides ?0¢0 %
- Le SPD obtiendra-t-il entre 13 % et 16 % de tous les deuxièmes votes valides ?0¢0 %
- Le SPD obtiendra-t-il au moins 16 % de tous les votes valides de seconde intention ?0¢0 %
Recent polls ahead of Berlin's September 20, 2026, Abgeordnetenhaus election consistently placed the SPD at 10-13%, reflecting a sharp decline from its 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat vote amid dissatisfaction with the CDU-SPD governing coalition on housing affordability and local services. The Linke surged to lead at around 21-23% by drawing left-leaning voters, while the CDU, AfD, and Greens held firmer positions in the mid-teens to low twenties. The confirmed result of 12.1% locked in the 10-13% outcome. A major recount or widespread irregularities could still shift the final tally, though such developments remain improbable given the margin and reporting.
Règles
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).