- Kung mangyari man ang Nothing: Nobyembre88¢88%
Trader consensus assigns an 88.5% implied probability to "Nothing" because no major diplomatic breakthroughs, military escalations, or leadership transitions have materialized or appear imminent within the November resolution window. Ongoing conflicts show no verified ceasefire agreements or new invasions, while scheduled U.S. midterm elections on November 3 involve standard congressional and gubernatorial contests without triggering defined resolution criteria such as regime changes or nuclear events. Recent polling trends and campaign activity remain consistent with historical midterm patterns, offering no evidence of sudden shifts that would alter the low probability of the specified high-impact outcomes. Traders weigh the absence of fresh catalysts against the potential for late-breaking developments, yet current evidence supports the elevated likelihood of no qualifying events.
Mga panuntunan
Magreresolba ang market na ito bilang "Something" kung matugunan ang alinman sa mga sumusunod na kundisyon sa pagitan ng Nobyembre 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET at Nobyembre 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Umabot sa ↑ $150 ang krudo ng WTI (WTI) - Umabot ang Bitcoin sa pinakamataas na antas nito sa lahat ng panahon - Umalis sa puwesto ang sinumang lider ng G7 (Carney, Macron, Merz, Meloni, Takaichi, Burnham, Trump) - Pinal na kasunduang nuklear ng US at Iran - Tigil-putukan ng Russia at Ukraine - Hindi na Pangulo ng Russia si Putin - Hindi na Pangulo ng Ukraine si Zelenskyy - Epektibong maisara ang Kipot ng Bab el-Mandeb - Bumalik sa normal ang trapiko sa Kipot ng Hormuz Kung hindi, maresolba ang market na ito bilang "Nothing". Makikita rito ang buong mga panuntunan para sa market na ito: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/November_NEH.pdf
Awtomatikong salin. Kapag may alitan, ang orihinal ang masusunod.